Staff Writer
The Phillies started the season with modest expectations following a big off season. Though they missed the playoffs last season, the franchise overall appears headed in the right direction while in midst of a long rebuild. Many of their key players from last season are still young and are poised to improve, such as starting pitcher Aaron Nola, center fielder Odubel Herrera, and left fielder Rhys Hoskins. In combination with a few big off season moves, such as the signings of Jake Arrieta and Carlos Santana, and expectations were that the Phillies in 2018 would improve from their 66-96 record in 2017 and perhaps even finish around an 81-81 .500 record, though playoffs were still a long-shot.
About a month has passed into the 2018 MLB season, and for the Phillies, their first month can be called a success despite some issues here and there. At the conclusion of the team’s final game in April, the Phillies had a 16-12 record; a record that has been viewed as surprising by some followers. Throughout the month, fans have seen some players perform well and surprise them while other perform poorly and disappoint them.
Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, and Rhys Hoskins have, as many expected, hit the ball well. These three have been crucial to producing many of the team’s runs. Some followers may say that Maikel Franco has had a pleasantly surprising start so far, and he is on track to easily improve from his disappointing 2017 season. In terms of pitching, Jake Arrieta has so far proven he was worth signing with a 3.49 ERA (and this number is inflated from one bad start), and Aaron Nola has continued his dominance from last season with a 2.58 ERA. Despite a few poor games, the bullpen has been good so far this season as well.
Things aren’t all good, though. Outside of Herrera, Hernandez, and Hoskins, hitting has been inconsistent, and Carlos Santana in particular has been a disappointment since his signing. Starting pitching has also been inconsistent aside from Nola and Arrieta. Newly signed manager Gabe Kapler has taken some criticism with an especially tough first week highlighted by taking Nola out from his opening day start after just 68 pitches, a decision that backfired when the bullpen blew a lead, and a game where miscommunication resulted in a pitcher from the bullpen being inserted into the game without time to warm up. Phillies fielding has also been poor; it is statistically the second worst in MLB in terms of defensive runs saved.
The biggest issue for the Phillies has been their inconsistency, which is to be expected for a young team like the Phillies. As a whole though, the Phillies first month can rightfully be called a success due to the 16-12 record and more positive signs from the young developing players than negative. The current 2018 total win forecast, according to FanGraphs, is 79 wins. A 79-83 record would be their best since the 2012 season and would make a good impression for contention in future seasons. Contending for a playoff spot this season, however, would require the Phillies to surpass those, and almost all other projections.
